New Report Models Routes to Meet Labour’s 6,500 Teacher Supply Pledge

A new report funded by the Gatsby Foundation offers an insightful analysis of how the Government can meet its ambitious target of recruiting 6,500 additional teachers by 2027/28. The research, conducted using the National Foundation for Educational Research’s (NFER) advanced forecasting and simulation model, examines various policy options and their potential impacts on teacher supply.

The report explores a range of policy measures, including pay increases, targeted financial incentives like bursaries and retention payments, and non-financial solutions such as reducing teacher workload and improving professional development opportunities. By modelling different scenarios, the study provides a comprehensive look at what strategies could most effectively contribute to achieving the teacher recruitment target.

Key findings from the research underscore the need for a multi-faceted approach. Achieving the goal of 6,500 additional teachers is no small feat, and no single policy measure is sufficient on its own. While pay increases could contribute significantly, the report highlights that they would need to be nearly 10% annually for three consecutive years to make a meaningful impact. This approach would come with a hefty price tag, costing the Government an estimated £7.7 billion per year by 2027/28.

However, the study also points to more cost-effective options that could help the Government meet its target. These include focused spending on targeted financial measures, such as bursaries and early career retention payments, which are particularly effective in addressing shortages in specific subjects. Non-financial measures, like reducing teacher workload and improving continuing professional development, were also identified as crucial components of a balanced strategy.

The research suggests that no one-size-fits-all solution exists. Instead, a combination of strategies will be necessary, with a focus on efficiently directing resources where they are needed most—specifically in subjects facing the greatest teacher shortages.

The report emphasizes that achieving the 6,500-teacher target will require new and additional policy measures that go beyond current efforts, with a focus on creating a sustainable, well-supported teaching workforce. The findings offer valuable insights into how the Government can take a more holistic approach to teacher recruitment and retention, ultimately ensuring that schools across the country have the teaching talent they need to thrive.